Gnosis is a decentralized open source prediction market protocol based on the Ethereum blockchain.

Gnosis aims to build prediction markets with access to accurate information worldwide.

The concept of prediction markets was first proposed in the early 1990s, and at that time they attracted a great deal of attention in forecasting and decision-making, mainly because so many leading financial regions were over-regulated at the time. With the invention of peer-to-peer computing technologies such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, the scientific quest for market-based forecasting can be lifted and accelerated. The new predictive market platform must be built on the basis of decentralization, dislicense and distrust in order to form the efficient flow of the global information economy. Prediction market is essentially a carrier to gather information about expected results, and it can trigger a spontaneous and efficient form of information aggregation through speculation in the market, so as to realize the influence of "wisdom of crowds" in actual events.

Gnosis is a decentralized prediction market built on the Ethereum protocol that provides an open platform for people to predict the outcome of any event and simplifies the process of creating custom prediction market applications. Gnosis uses predictive machines and smart contract automatism to allow players more flexibility in and out of prediction markets, and expects Gnosis participants to include real-world information based on Internet of Things technology, information collected through sensors that can be easily entered into a blockchain and traded as information assets.

Gnosis consists of three distinct layers of development. The core layer is responsible for building predictive markets, smart contracts that contain events, result tokens, settlements and market mechanisms. Users interacting with this layer charge 0.1% when performing operations such as buying a stock from a market maker's event results. The services layer is responsible for user experience tools such as chat, stablecoin and prognosticator platforms. This layer helps provide DApps built around the core Gnosis solution. The application layer is responsible for the front-end Dapp solution that leverages the services of the core and service layer, primarily as it drives third parties to build applications. Applications of Gnosis include decentralized exchange DutchX (since launched Gnosis Protocol) and wallet solution Gnosis Safe.

The Gnosis platform has two separate tokens for two separate functions. GNO is used to incentivize long-term engagement with the ecosystem, while OWL (formerly WIZ) is used to interact with the platform. Network participants can generate OWL tokens by locking GNO, which is locked into a smart contract that can be redeemed later. The amount of OWL a participant receives depends on the amount of GNO locked in, the time of allocation, and the total current supply of OWL in the market.

Dsmmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR).

Gnosis's two token models (GNO and OWL) are designed to facilitate token holders on platforms built on the Gnosis conditional token framework. DXdao, for example, builds Omen on a conditional token framework developed by Gnosis for prediction markets, on which users can use OWL to fund prediction markets through a simple market creation transaction. Technically, this means users can fund Omen automated market makers for market liquidity, with OWL becoming a 'collateral token' for predicting markets.

In order to lower the barrier of entry, Gnosis supports payment of THE Gnosis ecosystem participants' OWL tokens in addition to transaction fees paid by BTC and ETH. OWL is used to pay platform fees at the service layer, subsidize the costs of other participants, and provide early subsidies for market transactions. OWL is worth $1. OWL was converted from Gnosis token (GNO). OWL can only be created by locking GNO. This will be done in a smart contract system. This smart contract works as follows: Holders of GNO tokens agree to "lock in" their tokens in a smart contract (30-365 days). Longer locking periods can be achieved by adding a multiplier factor. The smart contract that determines the user's lock-up period then factors the lock-up period into a formula used to regulate the OWL token supply. Before locking GNO, users will be able to see exactly what OWL tokens they will receive for executing this smart contract. Once a user executes this contract, 30% of their OWL will be distributed for immediate use, while the remaining 70% will be distributed proportionally over the lock-up period. Once the lock expires, the locked GNO will stop making OWL, and the holder of the GNO will be free to perform the transfer behavior. GNO tokens can be used to create OWL an unlimited number of times (except for lockup periods).

Gnosis and Augur both develop decentralized prediction markets by providing core infrastructure and tools. While Augur focused on Oracle and market solutions systems, Gnosis developed easy-to-build prediction platforms, automated market makers, smart contract wallets, and DAPP infrastructure. (Gnosis uses single-source centralized prognosticators, with prognosticator competition reserved as the last resort for dispute resolution. The general case does not occur.

The Gnosis platform got off to a good start, winning some influential fans within the Ethereum community, while building an infrastructure and a diverse product suite. But its solution has little appeal to users and consumers. On-chain user and transaction activity is very low. And current trading volumes suggest that short-term speculative buyers are rare.

Regulatory risk and performance constraints of Ethereum network.

Gnosis is focused on building a decentralized prediction market and has built an infrastructure platform for prediction markets, allowing the creation of independent DApps on top of it, while the team has developed decentralized exchanges and Ethereum multi-signature wallets around liquidity and money storage, respectively. In April 2017, the project conducted a Dutch auction to issue token GNO, and raised 250,000 ETH within 10 minutes on the same day. 4.2% of the tokens were sold, and the remaining 95.8% were all retained by the team. Until last month (November 24), when DAO governance was announced, 80% of the total tokens would be released linearly by DAO governance. Currently, the project has built a perfect platform, but there are few on-chain users and low trading volume in the secondary market. Compared with Augur, there is still a big gap in usage and trading volume. If there is a market opportunity, a complete product suite and a closed loop process may win the market.

Gnosis is an established project on Ethereum, and V-God is also a consultant who recommends it with high community attention. However, the proportion of team coin holding is too large, and an effective incentive system has not been launched. DAO governance has been announced recently. If liquidity mining and other incentive measures can be opened, trading volume may be greatly improved.